Charles Schwab plans to offer direct Bitcoin and Ethereum trading by Q2 2026 through its Schwab Crypto platform. Bitcoin’s probability of staying above $68,000 on April 16 currently sits at 99.9%.
Schwab’s entry into crypto trading would make it one of the largest traditional brokerages to offer direct spot crypto access. The Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16 market has odds at 99.9%, near certainty. Ethereum’s odds of being above $1,800 by April 16-17 are at 99.9%.
The probability for Bitcoin not dipping to $60,000 in April holds across all sub-markets. The Schwab announcement fits a pattern of institutional adoption that reinforces trader expectations Bitcoin prices will hold. The term structure is stable, with no meaningful odds shifts over the near term.
Daily actual USDC volume is $1,208,763 for Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16. The market is thick, requiring significant capital to move prices, with a $302,645 face value indicating real institutional participation. Price changes in these markets will likely require notable news or large capital shifts.
Schwab offering direct crypto trading signals that traditional brokerages now view spot crypto as a standard product line. At 99.9%, traders see almost no chance of Bitcoin falling below $68,000. Ethereum odds are similarly high, consistent with expected institutional buying. For those buying YES at 99.9¢, the payout is minimal, but the position functions as a near-certain bet.
Watch for SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s next remarks and any shifts in crypto ETF flows, as these could affect trader sentiment and market odds.
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What Price Will Bitcoin Hit On April 13| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | 0.0¢ | $7K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 100% | +0.1¢ | $313K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 100% | +0.1¢ | $375 | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 100% | +0.1¢ | — | Trade → |
