Saudi Arabia’s finance minister warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t quickly normalize energy flows. The market for a UK warship transit by April 30 sits at 11.5% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
The UK warships through Hormuz market dropped steadily after the minister’s comments on insurance hurdles and the fragile ceasefire. A temporary truce hasn’t inspired confidence; the largest move was a 1-point drop at 8:42 AM. The Iran peace deal market also fell, sitting at 40.5% YES, which points to skepticism about a permanent agreement.
Traders have put $2,086/day into the warship market, but it would only take $427 to move the odds 5 points, a sign of thin liquidity. The peace deal market is thicker: $267,520 in daily USDC volume and $16,881 required to shift odds by 5 points.
The Saudi warning points to specific obstacles: insurance companies won’t cover Hormuz transits under current conditions, and the ceasefire has no enforcement mechanism. These logistical and financial barriers make military transits and diplomatic breakthroughs less likely on the April timelines these markets track. A YES share for warship transit at 11.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, but traders clearly see little chance of that happening.
Watch for statements from marine insurance firms and any changes to the ceasefire terms. An extension or collapse of the current truce will move both markets directly.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
