Sanctioned tankers Crave and Gardian have passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite the US blockade. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 is at 61.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
## Market reaction
The successful passage of these sanctioned tankers points to gaps in blockade enforcement. The April 30 sub-market dropped to 61.5% YES. The May 31 market is stable at 86% YES, suggesting traders expect normalization on a longer timeline even if April 30 looks uncertain.
The market trades $32,234 in USDC daily. Just $354 moved the April 30 odds by 5 points. The largest recent swing was a 4-point drop from 70% to 65% yesterday evening, as traders grew skeptical about near-term normalization.
## Why it matters
The tanker transits expose limits of the US naval blockade and show Iran can still facilitate shadow fleet operations through the strait. The gap between the April 30 market (roughly coin-flip odds) and the May 31 market (82% YES) suggests traders think enforcement will erode over weeks, not days.
Traders betting on a return to normal traffic by April 30 can buy YES shares at 61.5¢, for a potential 1.96x return if resolved YES. That price assumes no escalation or new blockade measures before the deadline.
## What to watch
Announcements from the US Navy or CENTCOM about reinforcing the blockade would likely push April 30 odds lower. Iranian statements about transit conditions or further sanctioned tanker passages could move odds in the other direction.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 86% | — | — | Trade → |
