Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Iranian FM Araghchi to insist on maintaining the Iran-U.S. ceasefire. The odds that Trump will announce a ceasefire breach by April 21 are now at 18% YES, up from 8% yesterday.
Lavrov’s call hasn’t fully calmed the market. The US-Iran ceasefire end by April 21 contract is at 9.5% YES, up from 6% despite Russia’s involvement. Russia’s position is consistent with prior UN initiatives, but traders are still pricing in real breakdown risk.
The Trump announcement of a ceasefire breach market is the most active, with daily volume at $3,485 in USDC. It takes just $498 to move the price 5 percentage points, which means this is a thin market where a single large trade can shift odds significantly.
Russia’s intervention cuts two ways. Traders may read it as a stabilizing signal, but Trump’s track record of abrupt reversals keeps a breach plausible. At 18¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump announces a breach by April 21, a potential 5.56x return. That bet requires believing an escalation or reversal is imminent.
Watch Trump’s Truth Social posts and any Pentagon or White House briefings. A firm U.S. commitment to the current ceasefire terms would likely push these odds down.
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Russia X Ukraine Ceasefire June 30 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
