Russia’s Rosatom urges the US and Israel to agree to a ceasefire to evacuate staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear site. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Rosatom’s appeal comes during a tense military situation involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The ceasefire request to evacuate Russian staff has increased the April 30 ceasefire odds to 38% YES, up 2 points. Traders see a potential diplomatic opening, though it’s uncertain.
The market for April 7 remains low at 8%, showing skepticism about an immediate ceasefire. The April 15 odds have risen to 18% YES, indicating some hope for progress within two weeks. The largest increase is between April 15 and April 30, a 20-point jump, suggesting traders expect a catalyst in that period.
Trading volume is $1,365,780 over 24 hours, with $15,138 needed to shift the April 7 odds by 5 points, indicating a thin market. This thinness means a large trade can significantly impact odds, warning traders against overreacting to short-term changes.
Rosatom’s request adds complexity, highlighting Russia’s nuclear safety concerns. While not signaling immediate peace, it opens a potential diplomatic channel. A YES share at 38¢ for an April 30 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves, offering a 2.6x return. Belief in a diplomatic breakthrough within 28 days is needed for this bet.
Watch for responses from the US or Israel. Diplomatic gestures or talks could dramatically shift odds. Trump’s rhetoric and CENTCOM updates are also key signals.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
