Roberto Sánchez has moved into second place by a narrow margin in Peru’s presidential election, and Rafael López Aliaga’s chances of winning the 2026 presidential election have dropped to 5.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
Sánchez’s rise reshapes the 2026 election market. His ability to consolidate leftist votes directly cuts into López Aliaga’s prospects. The López Aliaga market has fallen from 30% a week ago to 5.5%. With Sánchez in second, the likelihood of a López Aliaga vs. Alfonso López Chau runoff also drops.
Volume is at $640,733 in face value traded daily, though actual USDC traded is $37,803, a wide gap between nominal and real market activity. It takes $14,001 to shift the odds by 5 percentage points, so the market has reasonable depth but is still vulnerable to large orders. The biggest move was a 1-point spike, consistent with relative stability even as Sánchez’s position changed.
Sánchez’s advancement raises the probability of more leftist economic policies in Peru, with direct implications for mining policy, institutional continuity, and central bank succession. For traders, the contrarian bet looks like this: buying YES at 5.5¢ pays $1 if López Aliaga wins, a 18.18x return. That bet requires believing in a major shift in voter dynamics before June 7.
Watch for updates from Peru’s National Jury of Elections and any polling shifts, especially involving Keiko Fujimori, who leads the race. These will shape market pricing as the June runoff approaches.
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