Reclaim 70K, or Flush to 60K? — $17 Billion on the Line
ChartStraight4 min read·Just now--
On the Daily — Standing at the Edge of the Trend
Looking at the daily chart alone, price is sitting right at the edge of the trend.
Yesterday’s strong red candle puts us in a fairly precarious state
- The minimum condition for any breathing room on the upside is reclaiming 70K.
On the 4-hour chart, the current candle structure is actually shaping up quite well.
A short-term bounce looks possible from here — but there are a few variables in play.
Today’s Two Variables — Options Expiry and the Monthly Close
There were two major variables to watch today.
First: the options expiry that just passed.
Max Pain was at $75K — well above the current price.
Given the distance, as expected:
- Upside momentum was hard to generate heading into expiry
- And even after, the options overhang may continue to add downside pressure
At least from where things stand, that seems like a reasonable read.
As of writing, downside pressure is already showing up.
One thing many people get wrong: options expiry happens every month, and in reality, it rarely carries as much force as people expect. It’s better not to overweight it.
That said, if 70K holds even after expiry, the minimum momentum from the recent rally can still be extended — and additional upside potential remains intact.
With the Monthly Close Ahead — Is There Even a Reason to Push Higher?
Second: the monthly candle close — something we’ve been flagging for days now.
After yesterday’s 70K break, there’s been no follow-through buying. Price is hovering with roughly a $2,000 gap from 70K.
At this point —
a temporary bounce could still happen, but if there’s no real intention to hold 70K firmly —
closing the month somewhere in the 60K–66K range would actually look more attractive.
For Any Real Upside — It’s Not About Breaking 70K, It’s About Parking Above It
OI isn’t showing anything meaningful either. But the 4-hour structure is constructive, and there’s been a defensive stance building from around 68K since the 70K break.
The setup looked like it could produce at least one push back above 70K.
But what the upside case actually needs isn’t a brief spike above 70K — it’s ‘parking’ above it. Approaching this on hope alone seems premature.
What Crude Oil Is Telling Us — The Most Important Correlation Right Now?
Crude oil recently became available on crypto exchanges, making it possible to track in real time around the clock.
As mentioned in previous briefings, the most important correlation right now isn’t with the Nasdaq or gold — it’s between crypto and crude oil.
The Nasdaq and gold are likely to move in the same direction as crypto, with crypto simply showing more volatility. That’s fine.
What matters is that crypto and crude oil need to decouple — move in opposite directions — for the picture to turn positive.
Right now, crude is holding up better than expected, which is keeping crypto from gaining any real traction.
That said, crude’s daily chart shows a meaningful decline after hitting its ATH, and attempts to push higher have not followed through.
The strong red candle on the 23rd looks like it could serve as a reference point for further decline —
If crude fails to reclaim that candle, it could end up being a positive catalyst for crypto.
Wrapping Up
Every move right now is headline-driven, and volatility is running high. Personally, the plan is to close out March with an extremely conservative approach.
- If 70K holds through the weekend, or if a strong push develops above it → approach from a bullish stance, using 70K as the base
- If downside continues through the weekend → keep 62K–66K firmly on the table, and start building bullish exposure from around 66K at the earliest
Headline-driven moves can always reverse without warning. Keep that in mind with every trade.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment decisions and outcomes are the sole responsibility of the reader. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk, including potential total loss of capital. Past analysis does not guarantee future results. The author may hold positions in the assets discussed.
