Two Qatari LNG tankers, Al Daayen and Rasheeda, are attempting to enter the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. The April 30 market for traffic returning to normal is at 67% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
The attempted entry follows a ceasefire announced on April 8, though ship traffic remains limited. The April 30 market sits at 67% YES, while the May 31 market is at 86% YES. The 31.5-point gap between the two markets means traders expect most of the resolution to happen in May rather than the next two weeks.
The Strait of Hormuz market traded $32,234 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The order book is thin: just $354 would shift the April market price by 5 points, leaving it exposed to volatility from any single large trade. The biggest move was a 4-point drop yesterday evening.
If the tankers successfully transit, it would be a concrete step toward normal Gulf shipping. But this report comes from a Tier 3 social media source, which is less reliable than official statements or confirmed reporting. At 67¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, a 1.98x return. That bet requires believing in substantial logistical or diplomatic progress within 14 days.
Watch for announcements from the US 5th Fleet or CENTCOM, and any changes in Iranian naval activity. These would give the clearest read on whether tanker transits can proceed safely.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 67% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 86% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 17% | — | — | Trade → |
