Qatar’s decision to skip Iran-U.S. ceasefire talks until Iran stops missile strikes on Gulf countries has hit ceasefire odds. The April 7 ceasefire market is at 1% YES, down from 2% in the last 24 hours and 12% a week ago.
Qatar’s absence disrupts diplomatic efforts, as it has been a key mediator. The April 7 market is nearly flatlining at 1% YES, showing traders’ doubts about a quick resolution. April 15 odds have dropped to 6% YES from 8% yesterday and 22% a week ago. April 30 sits at 18% YES, while May 31 has fallen to 36% YES from 46% yesterday.
Trading shows a thin market. The April 7 odds have daily volume at $22,948 in real USDC, needing $12,367 to move the market 5 points. A single order could swing this market. April 30 trades $196,968 in real USDC daily, with order book depth at $19,938 to move the price.
Qatar’s non-participation removes a key diplomatic channel, lowering ceasefire chances. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, but a diplomatic breakthrough in four days seems unlikely.
Watch for statements from the Sultan of Oman, who might mediate, and CENTCOM briefings for military updates. Any de-escalation or softer rhetoric could shift odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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