A recording reveals Qatar offered to “look after” ICC prosecutor Karim Khan if he pursued charges against Netanyahu. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market prices this at 5.5% YES.
Market reaction
The June 30 odds sit at 5.5%, unchanged from 24 hours ago but down from 6% a week ago. The April 30 market remains flat at 0.1% YES, so traders are not expecting an immediate impact.
The term structure shows a 5-point jump from April to June, which suggests traders see possible developments over the next two months. Daily USDC volume is only $1,423, making this a thin market. It takes $9,495 to move the June odds by 5 points, which still provides some resistance to manipulation.
Why it matters
The biggest price move was a 1-point drop at midnight, with no large bets on immediate fallout. Because daily USDC volume is low relative to face value, a single large trade could move the price significantly. The Qatar recording adds a new dimension to the ICC’s credibility questions around the Netanyahu case, but traders appear to be waiting for concrete ICC actions or shifts within Netanyahu’s coalition before repositioning.
What to watch
The report’s impact on Netanyahu’s position depends on whether it produces actual legal consequences. A YES share at 5.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, an 18x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in significant political or legal upheaval within 67 days.
Watch for ICC announcements, reactions from Netanyahu’s coalition partners, and any changes in Israeli political dynamics or international legal proceedings that could move these odds quickly.
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Netanyahu Out Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
