Jerome Powell’s final press conference as Fed Chair has pushed Kevin Warsh’s confirmation odds sharply higher. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 is at 90% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
The market for Warsh’s confirmation by May 1 sits at 1.1% YES, meaning traders expect the confirmation to happen in the first half of May, not sooner. The June 30 contract is at 99.2% YES, near certainty. The biggest gap in the term structure is between May 1 and May 15, a jump of 89 percentage points, which points to traders expecting a specific catalyst in that window.
Trading volume is at $19,708 in USDC daily, with the May 15 contract showing substantial liquidity. It takes $1,590 to move this market by five percentage points, which suggests strong institutional participation. The largest single move was a 20-point spike at 2:18 PM, likely tied to Senator Thom Tillis’s support announcement.
Powell’s departure could resolve the renovation probe that has complicated Warsh’s path. A YES share at 1¢ for May 1 offers a 99x return, though the odds are very low. The May 15 contract’s pricing is more consistent with typical Senate confirmation timelines.
Watch for official statements from the Department of Justice or further endorsements from key Senate figures. Either could shift the term structure significantly.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.1% | 0.0¢ | $9K | Trade → |
| May 15 | 83.5% | -7¢ | $18K | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.2% | 0.0¢ | $5K | Trade → |
