The Pentagon has not released details on the Minab school strike, and prediction markets reflect the uncertainty. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by April 30 sit at 0.1% YES, while the May 31 contract trades at 3% YES.
The April 30 sub-market is effectively dead with just one day left. The real activity is in the May 31 market, where traders are pricing in potential regime instability over the coming month. Volume is at $92,531 in daily USDC traded, and it would take $113,028 to move the odds five percentage points in either direction.
The Minab strike hit adjacent to an IRGC facility and has drawn international scrutiny that could put pressure on Iranian leadership. The Iran leadership change market is likely responding to these same developments. The Pentagon’s ongoing investigation, its lack of transparency, and the strike’s civilian toll all add pressure on Mojtaba Khamenei’s position.
For traders, the May 31 regime fall market is the one to watch for volatility. Buying YES at 3¢ pays 33.3x if the regime falls. That bet depends on whether escalating international pressure and internal dissent produce significant regime changes within 32 days.
Watch for statements from Secretary Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM, along with any shifts in IRGC loyalty or public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei. These would directly affect how traders price regime stability.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3% | — | — | Trade → |
