A Pentagon assessment puts the timeline to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz at six months, a delay that would keep oil prices elevated well beyond current market deadlines. The odds for 80 ships transiting by April 30 sit at 6% YES, down from 17% a day ago.
The April 30 market dropped sharply on the news. A six-month clearance operation makes 80 ships transiting before the deadline almost impossible on its face. Daily volume is $2,238 in USDC, and the sustained move from 17% to 6% in a single day shows traders treating the Pentagon timeline as near-definitive.
The UK warships market tells a similar story: odds are at 3% YES, down from 10% yesterday. The extended clearance timeline makes British naval transit through a mined strait a near-nonstarter before April 30. The order book is thin, with only $200 needed to move the price 5 points, so any new intelligence on mine density or clearance progress could whip this contract around.
Buying YES at 6¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by the April 30 deadline, a 16.67x return. But that bet requires believing the Pentagon’s six-month estimate is wildly wrong or that some diplomatic resolution removes the mines from the equation entirely.
Watch for updates from U.S. Central Command and any shifts in IRGC naval activity. Admiral Brad Cooper’s reports on mine-clearing progress are the most direct signal for whether these contracts move.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |