The Pentagon says mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz could last six months. The chances of 80 ships transiting by April 30 now sit at 4.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 contract dropped sharply after the Pentagon’s assessment. With seven days left until resolution, traders are pricing in prolonged disruption. Liquidity is thin: daily volume at $794 in USDC, and $940 can move the odds by five points, meaning a few large trades can swing the market.
Why it matters
The June traffic normalization market has seen no activity yet, but the Pentagon’s six-month timeline points to clearance operations that can only begin after hostilities end. The April 30 market has been on a steady decline, with odds falling from 20% a week ago to the current 4.5¢. A six-month mine clearance window means sustained shipping disruptions through the strait, which carries roughly 20% of global oil trade. At 4.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30.
What to watch
Updates from the U.S. Navy or IRGC on mine clearing operations. Any progress in diplomatic talks or operational changes on the ground could move these odds.
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