The Pentagon estimates that clearing Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take more than six months. The Polymarket contract for 80 ships transiting the strait on any day by April 30 has dropped to 5% YES, down from 17% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 transit market fell from 17% to 5% in 24 hours after reports of Iran’s thousands of mines. A week ago, the contract sat at 28%. With only seven days until resolution and mine clearance measured in months, the probability has collapsed. Daily USDC volume is at $2,238, enough to confirm a real sentiment shift rather than speculative noise.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz handles a large share of global seaborne oil. The Pentagon’s six-month clearance estimate means traders are pricing in a prolonged disruption to maritime traffic through the strait. Order book depth is thin: just $946 would move the market 5 points, so even a modest new position could push prices further in either direction.
What to watch
A YES share at 5¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 20x return. For that to happen, something would need to change drastically within a week. The triggers to watch are U.S. Central Command updates on mine clearance operations and any Iranian statements about new maritime agreements.
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