A Pakistani mediator indicated possible progress in lifting the siege on Iranian ports, which could lead to high-level talks involving Iran and Washington. Iran agreeing to surrender enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, sits at 31% YES, down from 65% yesterday.
Market reaction
The odds on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 dropped 12 points at 10:27 AM. With 12 days left, traders see this as a tight window for any agreement. The June 30 market is at 43.5%, showing higher confidence over the longer timeline.
Why it matters
The US-Iran ceasefire end by April 21 is at 19% YES, up from 6% yesterday. With only a day left, the low odds indicate traders expect the ceasefire to hold. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 47.5% YES, split nearly evenly on whether a policy shift happens.
What to watch
Trading volume shows where the interest is. The April 30 uranium market had $138,687 in actual USDC traded, even as odds fell. It takes $1,703 to move this market 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The ceasefire market is thinner, with only $880 needed for a 5-point move.
The potential lifting of the blockade and talks could signal de-escalation, but these are steps toward a larger negotiation. At 31¢, a YES share in the April 30 uranium market pays $1 if Iran surrenders its stockpile, a 3.2x return. That bet requires believing in a fast turnaround.
Watch Islamabad for announcements about a new round of talks. Saudi and Qatari moves might pressure the US into a quicker resolution. Any statements from CENTCOM or the White House confirming or denying negotiation progress would move these markets.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 29.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 65% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 19% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 46% | — | — | Trade → |
