Pakistan has informed Trump that the US blockade on Iran is obstructing mediation efforts. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31 sits at 84% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
Market reaction
Traders are reassessing the likelihood of the blockade ending soon. The April 19 market dropped to 8% YES from 28% yesterday, a steep decline that prices out any near-term diplomatic breakthrough. The US-Iran ceasefire market rose to 18% YES, pricing in higher risk of ceasefire breaches.
Why it matters
The Hormuz blockade markets combined for $29,602 in actual USDC volume, with a notable 5-point drop at 12:19 PM. The ceasefire market traded just $3,485 actual USDC by comparison. On the May 31 market, it took only $1,419 to move the price 5 points, which signals thin liquidity and high sensitivity to new information.
Pakistan’s message points to a widening gap between the parties. With deadlines approaching and Trump posturing, negotiations look unlikely in the short term. At 84¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade lifts by May 31, a 1.28x return. That bet requires confidence in a rapid diplomatic shift that current signals don’t support.
What to watch
Pakistan’s next moves and any change in tone from the White House. VP JD Vance’s engagement or a formal mediation offer could shift expectations quickly.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 84% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
