Pakistan called for diplomacy at the UN over the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and the market for US-Iran talks by May 31 now sits at 57.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
The Iran Diplomatic Meetings market spiked 5 points to 62% earlier today. The Iran Peace Deals market remains flat, with traders skeptical about a permanent resolution. The US-Iran Ceasefire market is priced at 100% YES, meaning traders treat a ceasefire end as a near-certainty regardless of diplomatic pushes.
The Iran Diplomatic Meetings market has $95,253 in actual USDC traded against a face value of $152,453. Just $8,995 can move the market 5 percentage points, making it vulnerable to large orders. The biggest move in the past 24 hours was that same 5-point jump.
Pakistan’s UN speech is more about optics than action. It signals a preference for dialogue, but without concrete steps, it’s unlikely to change much. At 60¢, a YES share for US-Iran talks by May 31 pays $1 if it resolves, a 1.67x return. The question is whether Pakistan’s push leads to actual diplomatic channels opening.
Watch for announcements from Pakistan, Oman, or Qatar about hosting talks. Trump’s Truth Social posts or State Department scheduling hints could also move the odds.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
