Pakistan reportedly discovered an Israeli plan to assassinate two Iranian officials involved in U.S. talks. Following this, Israel launched strikes in Iran. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The revelation has affected related markets. Odds for US troops entering Iran have increased, suggesting a higher chance of military conflict. The Iranian regime fall market also rose. Ceasefire odds fell across the board, with April 7 at 8% and April 15 at 18.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday. Short-term markets show the most pessimism about diplomatic progress.
USDC trading volume remains high, with $205,330 on April 7 and $594,502 on April 15. The order book depth is strong, requiring $15,138 and $43,954 to move the price 5 points. However, large orders can still shift odds, as shown by a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM. Traders react to headlines, but the depth indicates institutional interest.
This escalation highlights the fragile ceasefire prospects. The source is tier-3, mainly social media, which limits its impact. However, the alignment with military actions adds weight. A YES share at 8¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs by April 7 — a 12.5x return. Betting on a quick resolution is risky without new diplomatic efforts.
Watch for changes in regional diplomacy, especially from Oman or Qatar. Statements from Secretary of State Rubio or a CENTCOM briefing could clarify U.S. intentions. Until then, expect volatile markets driven by military developments.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
