Pakistan is pushing for new US-Iran peace negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market is at 10.5% YES, unchanged despite the diplomatic initiative.
The April 22 peace deal market sits at 20.5% YES, up from 20% yesterday. Traders see a moderate chance of movement within a week. Pakistan’s mediation could nudge negotiations forward, but skepticism is high. April 30 and beyond markets are fully priced at 100% YES, reflecting confidence that some diplomatic resolution will emerge later.
The ceasefire market’s daily USDC volume is $5,405, with only $1,352 required to move the price 5 points. This is a thin market, easy to sway with a few large trades. The biggest move was a 2-point spike at 5:06 AM, driven by short-term speculation rather than sustained trading conviction.
Pakistan’s push for talks matters but isn’t a game-changer on its own. The previous impasse from the first round of talks in Islamabad suggests deep-rooted issues still need addressing. The contrarian play is buying YES at 11¢, which pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced by April 21, a potential 9.1x return. That bet only makes sense if you expect a rapid diplomatic turnaround.
Watch for any signs of scheduled talks or intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar. Confirmed progress could shift these odds quickly. Updates from Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, or CENTCOM would also be meaningful signals.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 20.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 29.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 49.5% | — | — | Trade → |
