Pakistan is mediating to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, set to expire next week. The market for a ceasefire extension by April 21 is at 76% YES, up from 69% a week ago.
Pakistan’s mediation efforts have pushed the ceasefire extension market to 76%, a modest rise that suggests traders find the diplomatic push credible. Meanwhile, odds for Trump announcing a ceasefire breach by April 21 have dropped sharply to 11.5%, down from 62% last week. That collapse points to traders pricing out an immediate conflict resumption.
The April 21 ceasefire market has daily volume of $227,401 in face value, with $169,129 in actual USDC traded. Moving the odds by 5 points requires $3,176, which means the market is relatively thick and resistant to small trades. The largest single-day move was a 10-point spike, indicating concentrated speculative interest around this date.
At 76¢, a YES share pays $1 if the extension is confirmed, yielding a 1.41x return. Traders buying YES at this price are betting on diplomatic success within five days. The 1.5-point rise from last week is small but directionally consistent with Pakistan’s active involvement.
Watch for statements from Pakistan’s government or from US and Iranian officials confirming or denying the extension. Any public commitment or rejection will likely move this market fast.
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