Pakistan’s leaders are working to contain Shiite unrest linked to the Iran conflict. “US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?” sits at 16.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
Market reaction
The disruption in Pakistan has coincided with sharp drops across Iran peace deal markets. Odds for a permanent peace deal by April 30 fell to 37.5% YES, down from 61% yesterday. The truce expires on April 21, and traders are pricing in the risk of renewed conflict. The Iran military action market holds at 100% YES.
Why it matters
The April 22 peace deal market trades $610,678 daily in actual USDC, with $9,404 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. The largest recent move was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM. Pakistani unrest adds a new variable to an already fragile ceasefire, and the market is reacting quickly to each development.
What to watch
Pakistan’s instability feeds directly into questions about Iranian leadership stability. A YES share in the Iran Leadership Status market pays $1 if resolved by December 31. Watch for movements from Pakistan’s military, diplomatic statements from involved countries, and any progress by US negotiators in Islamabad. The ceasefire deadline on April 21 is the immediate trigger point, and any shift in Pakistan’s mediation efforts could move odds sharply in either direction.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 37% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
