A Pakistan-flagged tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz carrying crude, defying the US Navy blockade. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 31 is at 27% YES.
This was the first vessel to transit since the blockade began, suggesting either selective permissions or easing tensions. The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of May market has moved up to 27% YES. Traders are pricing in a higher chance of normalization.
The odds for fewer than 20 ships transiting between April 6-12 remain at 100% YES. Traders appear focused on the potential for easing restrictions going forward rather than retroactive adjustments to already-settled weekly counts.
Trading activity over the last 24 hours is zero, with combined 24h volume at $0. Any significant move could be driven by a small number of trades. The order book is thin: roughly $800 could move the price by 5 percentage points, meaning one whale can swing this market.
This transit could signal a strategic shift, but one ship doesn’t make a trend. At 27¢, a YES share pays $1 if traffic returns to normal by May 31, a 3.7x return. That bet requires believing more neutral-flagged ships will pass through unhindered in the coming weeks.
Watch for further transits of neutral-flagged vessels, CENTCOM statements on the blockade’s status, and Iranian military responses. These are the main indicators of whether traffic will normalize by the end of May.
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