Operation Epic Fury has escalated US-Iran tensions, disrupting 20% of global oil consumption. On Polymarket, Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 37.5% YES, down from 38% yesterday.
Market reaction
The equity selloff triggered by the operation created a risk-off environment, which has historically been bearish for Bitcoin. The $100,000 sub-market here dipped slightly, while the $150,000 target here held steady at 10.5% YES. That stability suggests traders treat $150,000 as a distant enough target that short-term geopolitical events barely register.
The $100,000 market’s order book has real depth: $8,932 is needed to move it 5 points. The largest recent movement was a 1-point drop at 12:17 PM. The $150,000 market is much thinner, requiring just $1,150 for a comparable move, which makes it more vulnerable to single large trades.
Why it matters
Operation Epic Fury introduces macroeconomic uncertainty around oil supply and risk appetite that could weigh on crypto prices for weeks. A YES share at 38¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000, a 2.63x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need confidence that the current bearish pressure reverses before the end of 2026.
What to watch
Monitor any US military or diplomatic moves that could signal de-escalation. Also watch for public statements or buying activity from BlackRock or MicroStrategy, both of which have enough Bitcoin exposure to shift market sentiment on their own.
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What Price Will Bitcoin Hit Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
