ONPE discovered mid-voting that electoral materials were not distributed at certain Lima polling stations. Rafael López Aliaga’s odds for the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 9.5% YES, down from 18% a day ago.
Market reaction
Rafael López Aliaga’s odds dropped 5 points at 3:27 PM, moving from 16% to 10%. Traders appear to be pricing in the possibility that the distribution failures disproportionately affected areas of strong Aliaga support. Carlos Álvarez and César Acuña also face pressure.
Why it matters
This market trades $123,852 in real USDC daily. It takes $11,290 to shift the odds by 5 points, meaning the book is thick enough to absorb small trades but still moved sharply on the ONPE news. The 5-point drop in the last 24 hours was a direct response to the logistical failure.
The distribution chaos is not evidence of fraud, but it raises questions about election administration and could depress voter turnout at affected stations. That makes the outcome harder to predict. A YES share at 9.5¢ pays $1 if Aliaga wins, a 6.9x return.
What to watch
ONPE’s follow-up actions and public statements are the next catalyst. Any finding of systemic bias in which stations were affected, or corrective measures like extended voting hours, could move odds again. Local reporting on voter sentiment in the affected Lima districts will also matter.
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