One of longest mining capitulations nears end, signaling potential BTC price bottom

Hash Ribbon recovery and sub production pricing suggest the worst of the bitcoin drawdown may have passed.

Make us preferred on Google

What to know:

• The Hash Ribbon is close to flashing a recovery signal after three months of miner stress, a pattern that has historically aligned with local or major bitcoin bottoms.
• BTC is currently trading below its average production cost for the first time since November 2022, a level often associated with deep value and late stage capitulation.

The worst of bitcoin’s 50% drawdown may already be behind us.

The Hash Ribbon indicator is close to signaling the end of a three month miner capitulation. One of the longest capitulations on record, according to Glassnode data.
The metric compares the 30 day and 60 day moving averages of hash rate and is based on the observation that bitcoin often bottoms when miners are under maximum financial stress. Capitulation occurs when mining revenue drops below operating costs, forcing less efficient miners to shut down machines and sell BTC reserves to fund electricity, debt, and overhead. That combination reduces hash rate and adds sustained sell pressure to the market.

A recovery signal is triggered when the 30 day hash rate moving average crosses back above the 60 day, indicating miners are returning online and network stress is easing and that moment is approaching. Historically, when this crossover aligns with improving price momentum, it has marked strong accumulation zones.

Since late November, when the metric first inverted, bitcoin has fallen from around $90,000 to a low near $60,000 in early February, before rebounding to roughly $65,000 as of press time.
Such major corrections are typical during miner stress events. Since 2011, there have been about 20 mining capitulations, most coinciding with local or major bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018 and December 2022.

Hash rate which is the total computational power securing the network is now rebounding, signaling renewed confidence among miners.
At the same time, bitcoin is now trading below its estimated average production cost of $66,000, a level often associated with deep value, according to checkonchain data. The last time this occurred was November 2022, when BTC bottomed near $15,500.

More For You

Crypto rebounds from oversold levels, altcoin season indicator revisits January high

Bitcoin rose as much as 3.7% overnight before paring gains, while altcoins outperformed and the altcoin season indicator hit its highest level since January.

What to know:

• BTC climbed as much as 3.7% before trimming gains to remain 2.4% higher near $65,600, within its three-week range.
• SOL and ADA added 4.5%, while VIRTUAL, ETHFI and MORPHO posted advances of more than 10%, helping send the altcoin season metric back to its January high.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounced from oversold to neutral, hinting at consolidation. Equities edged higher, and silver’s 4% jump suggests speculative risk appetite.

U.S. Senator opens probe on Binance over alleged $1.7 billion flow to Iranian entities

23 minutes ago

Crypto rebounds from oversold levels, altcoin season indicator revisits January high

30 minutes ago

Strategy becomes most heavily shorted U.S. stock – but don't assume pure bearishness

1 hour ago

Leading stablecoin Tether shrinks again as market cap looks set for second straight monthly drop

4 hours ago

Vitalik Buterin sold 17,000 ETH this month as ether fell 37%

5 hours ago

Crypto firm with U.S. bank charter holds bitcoin holder Strategy's preferred stock

5 hours ago

Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is planning stablecoin comeback in the second half of this year

21 hours ago

Crypto’s biggest exchange fights back against allegations of moving billions of Iran-linked money

15 hours ago

Crypto isn't losing to AI, its just 'capitalism doing its job,' says Dragonfly

15 hours ago