Oman has signed agreements to waive transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and US-Iran ceasefire markets have reacted sharply. The April 15 ceasefire contract now sits at 100.0% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.
## Market reaction
The agreement, part of the “Muscat Protocol,” shifts oversight from Iran’s IRGC to a bilateral management system, reducing blockade risks. Traders have interpreted this as a strong signal toward ceasefire. The April 30 market also moved to 100.0% YES, up from 26% a day ago.
## Why it matters
The largest single move was a 24-point spike in the April 15 market at 10:34 PM, driven by increased confidence that the agreements would facilitate a ceasefire. Daily USDC volume hit $1,385,525, indicating serious capital behind these positions.
Oman’s fee elimination directly counters Iran’s previous toll impositions and represents a shift from military posturing to diplomatic coordination. The move to 100.0% YES in the April 15 market reflects trader consensus that the framework for a formal ceasefire is in place. At current odds, buying YES shares offers no payout, but the speed of the shift shows how decisively the market priced in the Muscat Protocol.
## What to watch
Further developments from the Sultan of Oman and any changes in rhetoric from US or Iranian officials will matter most. A formal ceasefire announcement would confirm what traders have already priced in.
## API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | 0.0¢ | $8M | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | 0.0¢ | $4M | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.8% | -0.1¢ | $2.9M | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | 0.0¢ | $1.4M | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | 0.0¢ | $749K | Trade → |
