Oman and Iran met to ensure smooth transit through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling diplomatic engagement. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
The market reaction was muted, with the April 7 market at 1% YES, showing skepticism about immediate breakthroughs. The April 15 market sits at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market at 18% YES saw a 2-point spike yesterday, suggesting some optimism for diplomatic progress in the medium term.
The meeting signals potential de-escalation but lacks direct US or Iranian military involvement, limiting its impact. The May 31 market at 36% YES and the June 30 market at 52% YES reflect greater confidence in longer-term resolution.
USDC traded in these markets totals $430,773 over the past 24 hours, with $12,367 required to move the April 7 market 5 points, indicating low liquidity. The largest move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market at 5:08 PM.
This meeting represents a modest diplomatic step, but without significant military de-escalation, the situation remains precarious. At 18¢, a YES share for a ceasefire by April 30 pays $1 — a 5.5x return. For that wager to pay off, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent.
Watch for any announcements from Oman or Qatar regarding further intermediary actions, or any shifts in CENTCOM’s operational stance. These could move the markets significantly.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
