Oil prices surged over 6% as the Strait of Hormuz closed amid heightened U.S.-Iran tensions. WTI crude oil hitting $160 in April now sits at 1.4% YES, up from 1% yesterday.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, part of Operation Epic Fury, has disrupted global oil supply and triggered fears of a severe energy shock. The largest price spike was a 25-point leap at 8:02 PM, moving the market from 1% to 26%. It settled back to 1.4%, but the swing shows how reactive traders are to Middle East military developments.
Volume tells a different story. Face value is $72,164/day, but actual USDC traded was just $704, meaning liquidity is thin. It takes $1,655 to move this market by 5 points, so a few large trades can swing the odds sharply. Traders remain cautious given ongoing military operations and the potential for further escalation.
The key question for traders is whether this reflects a temporary spike or a sustained move. At 1.4¢, a YES share pays $1 if WTI hits $160 in April, a 71.4x return. That bet depends on continued tension choking oil supply without meaningful de-escalation.
Watch for Trump’s next move and any Iranian counteractions. Scheduled U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan are the most immediate catalyst. Any shift in military or diplomatic strategy could move these odds fast.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
⚡ Also Impacted by This Story
