Oil prices spiked 3% as the US-Iran conflict continues, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. The Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April currently trades at ?.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz closure affects almost 20% of global oil supplies. The US Navy’s blockade and Iran’s continued closure have cut Gulf state oil production by up to 10 million barrels per day. Brent crude has held above $109/barrel for a week straight. The April 30 contract resolves in just 6 days. Trading volume has been quiet with no face value recorded, though the supply disruption and geopolitical pressure could push activity higher.
Why it matters
A 10-million-barrel-per-day supply loss is enormous. If the Strait stays closed through month-end, the gap between current Brent prices and the $160 WTI target narrows considerably. The contract’s short time to expiration means any escalation or diplomatic breakthrough will move odds fast.
What to watch
Statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and Iran’s Supreme Leader are the most likely catalysts. Any policy shift or announcement on either the blockade or the closure could move this market within hours. Without diplomatic progress, the supply crunch persists and the bullish case for $160 WTI strengthens.
At ?, a YES share pays out if WTI Crude reaches $160 by April 30. Current conditions, particularly the ongoing Strait closure, favor buyers unless there is a real change in negotiations.
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