The Pentagon’s preparation for limited ground raids inside Iran has pushed the odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 to 86% YES, up from 62% a day ago.
Traders are reacting to the shift from airstrikes to ground operations. The April 30 market surged 24.5 points in the last 24 hours. The December 31 market also climbed to 90.5% YES from 72%. The narrowing spread between April and December indicates traders expect imminent action.
Markets are trading $5,069,224 in USDC daily. It takes $84,737 to move the April market 5 points, making it resistant to small traders but influenced by large orders. A significant 4-point spike at 2:14 PM suggests a large buy order.
A move from plans to operations would solidify these odds. Without confirmed raids, traders might re-evaluate. At 86¢, a YES share pays $1 if US forces enter Iran by April 30 — a 1.16x return. Traders must consider if Trump will approve these plans soon.
Watch for Pentagon briefings or Trump’s decision in the coming days. Updates from Hegseth or CENTCOM could drive further market changes.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 86.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 90.5% | — | — | Trade → |
