Nvidia’s market cap has crossed $5 trillion again, and the Polymarket contract for it being the largest company by April 30 sits at 99.8% YES.
The June 30 market trades at 92.0% YES, up from 90% a week ago. The December 31 contract is a different story: only 0.9% YES, a sharp drop in confidence over the longer time horizon.
Daily trading volume for the June 30 market is $4,178 in USDC, with the largest move being a modest 1-point spike. Moving the odds 5 points would require $42,558, a sign of thick liquidity. The April 30 market, with only 6 days left, is even thicker: $183,166 to shift odds by 5 points, consistent with near-total confidence that Nvidia holds the top spot through month-end.
Nvidia’s position at $5 trillion is tied directly to demand for AI semiconductors and the company’s dominance in GPU supply for training large models. U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China remain a live variable that could affect future valuations. With a YES share on the April 30 contract priced at 99.8¢, traders have priced in near-certainty, leaving almost no payout upside.
Watch for Nvidia’s upcoming earnings call and any announcements on GPU supply or export restrictions. Either could move the June 30 and December 31 contracts meaningfully.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 92% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
