Nvidia has extended its winning streak to 10 days, rising 18% on AI demand. The Polymarket contract for Nvidia to become the world’s largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 89.5% YES, up from 85% a week ago.
The June 30 market holds at 89.5%, with odds ticking up roughly 4.5 points over the past week. Nvidia has been developing export-compliant chips for the Chinese market, and a potential easing of US restrictions on AI chip exports could widen its addressable market further. The week’s price movement tracks Nvidia’s revenue growth and its position as the primary supplier of AI training hardware.
Liquidity is solid, with $24,517 in USDC traded daily. A $36,835 move is required to shift the price by 5 percentage points. The largest price swing in the last 24 hours was a 1-point drop, suggesting stable confidence among traders.
At 89.5¢ per YES share, the payout is $1 if Nvidia tops the market cap ranking by June 30, a 1.12x return. Traders are already pricing in significant optimism at this level. To justify buying here, you’d need to expect concrete steps toward easing US-China chip export tensions or further acceleration in AI infrastructure spending.
Watch for upcoming talks between President Trump and Xi Jinping. Any announcement on Blackwell processor export rules could directly affect Nvidia’s access to the Chinese market and move this contract.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 89.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
