Norway’s oil export earnings surged 68% to $6.1 billion in March 2026 due to the Iran war, and the Polymarket crude oil contract for $90 by June 30 now prices at a 25% expected move.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has directly affected the crude oil market for June. With 75 days until resolution, global supply disruptions through the Strait are pushing odds of crude hitting $90 by end of June higher. Norway’s windfall from redirected oil flows reflects how severe the supply squeeze has become.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market is unlikely to resolve YES by the end of April. The closure is a severe escalation affecting global oil trade, and with only 14 days until resolution, the 35% expected move suggests traders see almost no chance of a quick reopening.
Trading volume in both markets remains sparse, with no significant recent activity. Liquidity and order book depth in the crude oil contract will signal how fast odds adjust if the conflict escalates further.
At 22¢, buying YES on crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 pays $1, a 4.5x return. That bet requires believing disruptions persist through the summer. Traders should watch for announcements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, EIA reports, OPEC+ meetings, statements from the Iranian government, and moves by major shipping companies like Maersk. Any of these could shift the odds on both contracts.
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