## Market Snapshot
The US-Iran ceasefire extension market (June 7 deadline) is priced at 73.5% YES, up from 67% 24 hours ago. The Strait of Hormuz normalization market (May 31 deadline) sits at 3.4% YES, down from 4%.
## Key Takeaways
– Pricing in the June 7 ceasefire extension market appears consistent with growing participant confidence that a formal agreement is approaching, following the Nikkei report. – The Hormuz normalization market’s sub-4% pricing suggests participants view full traffic restoration by May 31 as highly unlikely, consistent with the reported 30-day post-deal timeline. – A 52-point gap between the May 26 (21%) and June 7 (74%) ceasefire sub-markets suggests markets view the most probable announcement window as falling after May 26.
Advertisement## Article Body
Nikkei reported Sunday, citing a source, that Iran has indicated it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz 30 days after a US deal to end fighting is finalized, with ships from all nations able to navigate freely — mirroring pre-shutdown conditions. Separately, the report states a ceasefire agreed upon by the US and Iran in early April would be extended for 60 days. The report was relayed via @DeItaone, a Tier 1 wire aggregator. This follows a May 24 New York Times report that Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium under a deal announced by President Trump, and a May 23 Trump statement that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened as part of any agreement.
## Market Interpretation
The Nikkei report is supportive of YES in the June 7 ceasefire extension market, where pricing has moved from 67% to 73.5% within 24 hours — a high-impact development. For the Hormuz May 31 market, the reported 30-day post-deal timeline appears consistent with NO resolution, reinforcing the current 3.4% YES pricing. Impact bucket: High for ceasefire extension; Moderate for Hormuz normalization.
## What to Watch
Watch for an official US or Iranian government statement confirming or denying the 60-day ceasefire extension before the May 26 deadline. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s public posture and any IRGC communiqué on maritime restrictions will be key indicators for Hormuz resolution. The June 7 window remains the market’s implied focal point for a formal announcement.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal End Of May| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 0.9% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26 | 20% | — | — | View market → |
| May 25 | 4.8% | — | — | View market → |
| June 7 | 73% | — | — | View market → |
