Israel’s Channel 12 reports Netanyahu will soon talk to Trump after his rejection of an Iranian proposal. The odds of Iran agreeing to surrender its uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, are at 0.5% YES, down from 11% a week ago.
The market for a uranium surrender by June 30, 2026 is at 22.5% YES, up slightly from 22% yesterday but down from 34% a week ago. The December 31, 2026 contract sits at 39.5% YES. Traders are pricing in almost no chance of a short-term deal and betting on a longer timeline.
The 22-point gap between the April 30 and June 30 contracts implies traders expect a possible catalyst after April but not before. Total face value traded is $273,156, with $24,872 in actual USDC. It takes just $1,291 to move the April 30 market 5 points, meaning even small capital flows could shift the price.
Trump’s outright rejection and Netanyahu’s planned discussion point toward a harder line, which reduces the likelihood of a diplomatic deal on uranium. For contrarian traders, a YES share at 0.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a theoretical 200x return. That bet requires assuming substantial behind-the-scenes progress that isn’t publicly visible.
Watch for White House statements or any unexpected announcement of direct US-Iranian contact. Either would likely reprice these contracts quickly.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31, 2026 | 39.5% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30, 2026 | 22.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.2% | — | — | View market → |
