## Market Snapshot Iran’s Enriched Uranium Surrender market shows a current YES pricing of 42.5%, up from 42% in the past 24 hours and from 32% a week ago. The Israel-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market is priced at 16.5% YES, slightly increasing from 16% over the last day.
## Key Takeaways – Netanyahu’s statement appears consistent with increased pressure on Iran, suggesting potential for Iran’s enriched uranium surrender. – The assertion that the conflict is “not over” suggests a decrease in the likelihood of an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal. – Market movements reflect Netanyahu’s comments, with slight increases in the probability of Iran surrendering enriched uranium.
## Article Body Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent remarks on CBS’s 60 Minutes highlight the ongoing tensions with Iran, particularly concerning its nuclear program. Netanyahu emphasized that the conflict with Iran is far from over, underscoring the necessity to dismantle Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and remove enriched uranium stocks. This statement comes amidst the backdrop of the 2026 Iran War, marked by coordinated U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The military operations have significantly impaired Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities, yet Netanyahu’s insistence on further dismantlement indicates the potential for continued military engagement.
## Market Interpretation Netanyahu’s comments appear to be pricing supportive of a YES outcome for Iran’s potential surrender of enriched uranium, with a moderate impact. Additionally, the statement is consistent with a NO outcome for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal, reflecting a high impact due to the continued hostilities implied in Netanyahu’s remarks.
## What to Watch Observers should monitor any developments or statements from key actors such as the IAEA, U.S. negotiators, and Iranian officials for indications of diplomatic progress or further escalation. Additionally, any new military actions or diplomatic initiatives could significantly impact market expectations regarding both Iran’s uranium surrender and the potential for a peace deal.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 42.5% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30, 2026 | 18.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 16.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31, 2026 | 4% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 0.2% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 0.5% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 62.7% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 0.9% | — | — | View market → |
