Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that President Trump remains committed to maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the May 31 lifting market to 82% YES.
Market reaction
The sub-markets show different timelines priced very differently. The April 17 market sits at 8.5% YES, with traders pricing a lift as unlikely in the immediate term. The April 19 market is at 17.5% YES, roughly double the April 17 odds over just two extra days.
The May 31 market at 82% YES suggests traders expect a resolution catalyst within the next 45 days. The largest single move was a 2-point spike, showing some volatility but broad confidence in a firm US stance for now.
Why it matters
Maintaining the blockade is a pressure tool against Iran, likely at the cost of short-term diplomatic progress. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 23.5% YES, showing skepticism about a quick resolution.
What to watch
If you’re betting on the blockade lifting by April 17, a YES share trades at 8.5¢, offering a potential 11.8x return. That would require a dramatic policy reversal in one day.
Watch for Trump’s upcoming statements on Truth Social, any shifts in Iranian diplomatic posture, or changes in US military activity in the Strait. These will signal whether the current blockade stance holds or breaks.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17, 2026 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 23.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 39% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 57% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
