Nasdaq 25,000 Tests the Market’s AI Mania | April 24, 2026

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The market is showing mixed signals. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is basically flat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) appears negative, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) is carrying most of the strength.

Oil remains the main pressure point. When oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), moves higher, stock futures tend to pull back. When oil drops, the market gets relief. That inverse relationship has been clear today. Oil initially fell $4 after news that a major Iranian diplomat was traveling to Islamabad, which helped S&P 500 futures (ES) move higher. Once oil bounced back, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) lost momentum again.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) remains the key chart. Earlier in the week, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) had already reached the upper band of its parallel channel, while the Nasdaq had not. That left room for additional upside in the Nasdaq, and today’s strength is testing that setup.

The important level now is 25,000 on the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC). The comparison being made is to the dot com period, when the Nasdaq moved from about 4,000 to above 5,000 before topping for 15 years. In 2026, roughly 25 years later, the Nasdaq is approaching 25,000. Since 5,000 times five equals 25,000, that level is being watched as a possible major signal. It does not confirm a top by itself, but it does make the area important.

Next week also matters because Apple Inc. (AAPL), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) report earnings, alongside a heavy economic calendar. With the market already extended and leadership concentrated in technology, those reports could shape the next major move.

Oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is the biggest macro driver in this setup. When oil is above $90, equities appear to trade inversely with it almost tick for tick. A few days ago, oil was viewed as having room to move as high as $100, possibly $104 per barrel, as it retraced toward the underside of the prior breakdown area.

Gold is flat, but it still looks like it is rolling over. While stocks have strengthened, gold has weakened, which may suggest investors are shifting away from safety and toward hotter trades such as semiconductors. That does not necessarily hurt the long-term gold case. Gold moving higher alongside risk assets is less healthy than gold acting as a true safe-haven.

Silver is also flat. The prior hit of 82 was important, and the next downside area to watch is 66 to 64 if the price continues lower.

Natural gas (NG) dropped sharply yesterday and is weakening again today. It is back near the lows, with support around 270 now the key level to watch. A break below that area would raise the risk of further downside.

Technology strength is being driven almost entirely by semiconductors, and the move has become extreme.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is the clearest example. Based on today’s gap higher, SOXX is up 50%, after previously looking stretched when it was up 20% to 30% in a week or two. At its premarket highs, it was up 49% to 50%, and today would mark its 18th straight up day. The key area to watch is 458 to 460, which lines up with the steepest remaining trendline after SOXX pushed through every other trendline.

Intel Corporation (INTC) is up 25% after an earnings beat. The company made about $0.29 per share, but it is still trading around 100 forward P/E. The stock has already moved above its prior all-time high near $76 per share, and the current area near $85 per share lines up with a possible trendline. There is also a case that Intel could end below $80 because its valuation is far out of line, even compared with other semiconductor names.

The size of the semiconductor rally is difficult to ignore. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is being discussed at around $5 trillion, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) is around $2 trillion, and Intel Corporation (INTC), after today’s gap, is expected to become a $400 billion company. Intel was essentially supported by the U.S. government a year ago through a government stake, and it now appears to be benefiting from that position.

The concern is that this looks increasingly like a bubble. That does not mean the top has to be today, but the risk is building. A psychology scan showed a 99 greed reading on a fear and greed index, with major signs of a possible reversal. Middle East money has also been a major source of demand for data centers and AI infrastructure, and if that spending is starting to slow, the market may be pricing semiconductor demand as if it will last forever, just as the cycle is getting tired.

Competition is another issue. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is flat to slightly positive after being negative earlier in the premarket, even though semiconductors are broadly strong. That may reflect the market recognizing that Intel Corporation (INTC), Arm Holdings plc (ARM), Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL), and others are developing chips that compete directly with Nvidia. Over time, competition can pressure margins and change the story.

The comparison to solar stocks in 2006 and 2007 is useful. First Solar Inc. (FSLR) moved from around $2 to 300 over a couple of years because solar was treated as the next major growth story. Then China flooded the market with solar panels, margins collapsed, and the stocks eventually fell 80%. That does not mean semiconductors are topping today, but it does show how fast a growth story can change once competition hits margins.

Arm Holdings plc (ARM) is also gapping higher. Since March 9, the stock is up 100%, and it is only April 24. The chart has a cleaner trendline because it has several underbelly touches and repeated hits, with price trading directly into that area.

Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) is coming in slightly in the premarket and appears to be rolling over. Still, since March 30, it has moved from $86 and is basically up 100%. That move is impressive, but it also shows how extensive the semiconductor trade has become.

Bitcoin (BTC) is now more neutral. Until a few days ago, the bullish view was focused on $80K. Bitcoin reached $79.5K, essentially touching $80K, and it may still touch or push through that level. The concern is that the broader stock market has become very extended, which can make risk assets more vulnerable. Bitcoin often trades with risk appetite, so that matters here. Bitcoin remains in a near term uptrend, but it is still inside a larger macro bear flag. That means the short-term trend can still point higher while the bigger structure remains bearish.

The risk-reward is now limited. The best upside case is a move to $85K, which would be an acceptable move from here, but that is viewed as the strongest scenario. Bitcoin may also be close to a near-term top.

Outlook

The market is not weak, but it is stretched and increasingly dependent on a narrow group of technology names. Oil is pressuring equities whenever it rises; the S&P 500 Index is flat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average appears negative, and the Nasdaq Composite Index is carrying the tape.

The semiconductor trade is the main driver, but it is also the main risk. The cleanest takeaway is this: the market can still move higher, but the setup is increasingly fragile. The Nasdaq Composite Index is approaching 25,000, extreme semiconductor gains, valuation concerns, possible slowing of AI infrastructure spending, and the inverse pressure from oil all point to a market that deserves caution rather than celebration.