Mojtaba Khamenei’s installment as Iran’s supreme leader points to regime durability under IRGC control. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 sit at 4% YES, down from 6% a week ago.
With Iran’s leadership unchanged in character, the market for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 shows little movement at 5.5% YES. The December 31 market is at 12.5% YES, still low given the regime’s apparent stability. The leadership succession reaffirmed IRGC dominance, and odds across all three markets have declined accordingly.
The IRGC’s “sacred defense” doctrine frames the regime’s posture against both internal dissent and external pressure, reducing the probability of scenarios involving regime change or a power vacuum by year-end. Trading volume is thin: $379 daily for the regime fall market and $613 for Pahlavi’s return. The odds shifts reflect cautious repositioning by a small number of traders rather than any large directional bet.
For those holding YES on regime collapse by May 31, a share is priced at 4¢, which would pay 25x if it resolves. But the market is pricing strong regime resilience, consistent with Mojtaba Khamenei’s consolidation of power.
IRGC defections or large-scale protests are the most likely catalysts that could move these probabilities. Any signs of IRGC fragmentation or public dissent escalating beyond what the security apparatus can contain would be the trigger to watch.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
