Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly unconscious in Qom, increasing speculation about Iran’s leadership during the ongoing conflict. The odds of the regime falling by June 30 are now at 13.5% YES, up from 12% yesterday.
The report has affected the Iranian regime fall market, though it remains below last week’s 20% level. The June 30 sub-market shows traders considering the leadership vacuum, with 88 days until resolution. The potential power shift to an interim council and IRGC-aligned figures adds complexity to the situation.
The market sees $439,688 in face value traded daily, with $59,602 actual USDC changing hands. It would take $195,733 to shift the odds 5 percentage points, indicating strong trading activity. The largest 24-hour move was a modest 1-point spike, suggesting gradual changes.
This leadership turmoil is significant amid the U.S. ultimatum deadline. The regime’s response could influence the outcome. A YES share betting on regime fall by June 30 is priced at 13.5¢, offering a 7.4x return if successful.
Watch for signs of IRGC discord, unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings, or changes in U.S. rhetoric for stronger signals of regime instability.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Source
