Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader has pushed down the odds of a regime fall by May 31, with the market now at 3.4% YES, down from 5% a day ago.
The leadership transition consolidates IRGC control, reducing expectations of imminent collapse. The Iran leadership change by December 31 market is at 41.5% YES, up from 39% yesterday. The leadership change by May 31 market is at 15.5% YES.
Daily volume is $37,360 in USDC. The market is thin: just $7,057 moves prices by 5 points. A 2-point spike in May 31 odds hit at 6:20 PM, showing how quickly trader sentiment reacts to any hint of instability.
At 3¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by May 31, a 33x return. Taking that bet means expecting a major destabilizing event within 37 days, which the succession appears to have made less likely.
Watch for IRGC defections or Assembly of Experts announcements. Either could shift these odds quickly.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
