Markets Shrug Off Chaos, But Risk Is Building | April 23, 3036
Jadid Herrera9 min read·Just now--
The S&P 500 (SPX), along with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), had another volatile day. SPY traded from 712 down to 702, a 10-point swing that broke below the lower end of an inclining trend line before bouncing back. The biggest move came during the day, when the market started to recover through lunchtime, only to suddenly sell off after headlines related to tensions in the Middle East were released. Oil jumped, stocks dropped, and then by the close the market had worked its way back toward the middle of the day’s range. That matters. The close, more than the intraday chaos, shows a market that still reacts fast to headlines but has not clearly broken down.
On the daily chart, SPX is still consolidating after a strong move higher, and a bull flag is starting to form. That setup does come with a warning, because a bull flag at the top of a chart can fail. Even so, the recovery from below the trend line back into the upper part of the consolidation stood out. Post-market action moved only slightly lower, so the bigger structure is still mostly unchanged.
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) followed a similar path, but it finished weaker, down .57%. The larger pattern is still a strong move from 2023 into the current parallel channel. The March pullback touched the 50% area and bounced cleanly. Today’s move broke below the inclining trend line, but the chart still leaves room for a move toward the top of the channel at 27,438 points. Daily RSI is still overbought and sitting right on the 70 level. Weekly RSI has not reached 70 yet, which supports the view that this move may still have a little more room, even though it already looks stretched.
The Russell 2000 proxy mentioned in the source, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWN), spent the day stalling at an important level. Price is still dealing with an inclining trend line drawn from the November 2024 pivot and connected through the top end of the head from the head and shoulders pattern that formed through 2025 and 2026. The intraday drop put the ETF under more pressure, but the lower wick and the bounce afterward reinforced the same theme seen across the market: weakness showed up, but buyers also stepped back in.
That strength is still easiest to see in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which keeps acting like a leader for the broader market. The move has been huge, almost a blowoff-style run, with money continuing to move into chip names. Price closed right on top of a tight parallel channel that goes back to the April 2025 lows, and after hours, it was already trying to move above that upper boundary. The setup stands out because it mirrors the break below the lower end of the same channel in March. Now price is testing the opposite side. Near-term RSI is 79.63, and the weekly chart is overbought too, which shows the move is extended and may need to cool off. Still, the strength is obvious. Nothing else on the near term chart matches the three-bar surge that has now turned into a four-bar weekly move. If the price closes above the top of the parallel on Friday, the upside may start to act as the downside did earlier.
Gold (XAU/USD) is still showing a bearish setup, first with one bear flag and then another. The break of the near term inclining trend line has stayed the clearest sign that the trend changed, and every day since has supported that idea. Even so, gold has not fully broken down. It is still holding in a sideways consolidation range. To turn more bullish again, the price would need to get back above that broken trend line. Until then, the key downside break point remains a move below $4,588.
Silver (XAG/USD) is showing a similar pattern, but it has been acting a little stronger than gold in the near term. The chart shows a larger bear flag followed by a smaller one, while the price keeps fighting around support at $75.33. That level was already held two sessions ago and gave silver a solid bounce, and it was tested again earlier in the day. A close above it would keep the range in place, though repeated testing keeps weakening that level. For now, the most likely outcome is still price action staying around this same area into tomorrow.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) was one of the clearest reactions to the headlines. The hourly chart shows it best. Resistance near $95.25 held through several tests after an early move higher, but things changed fast once the Middle East headline broke. Oil surged through $97.32, only to hit resistance again on the current hourly wick. The pattern still looks like a stair step move higher through one resistance level after another. The next major level above is $104.34, which lines up just below the inclining parallel channel that has been in focus ever since oil printed that massive daily long upper wick.
Natural gas (NG) failed to hold its recent attempt to stabilize. Price was rejected and moved back toward support at $2.71, which keeps the broader bearish consolidation in place. Over the previous two sessions, the market had started building what looked like a small bullish consolidation above that level, which could have helped push the price toward $2.90. That setup failed today. With the price back near $2.71, the next support at $2.41 is back in view.
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) stayed under pressure after earnings. The stock fell, but support at $225.17 held and kept the price from making new near term lows. That level mattered. It helped create a bounce and left a large daily wick, which is now the main positive on the chart in the near term. As long as the price stays above that candle, the stock still has room to rebuild inside the current consolidation. The weekly chart looks less encouraging. There, the setup still looks like a bear flag after a big drop. If that pattern keeps breaking lower, the next support is just below $200, followed by $186, which lines up with the consolidation from July 2024.
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) had one of the biggest earnings moves of the day. The company beat earnings per share by 23% and revenue by 6.6%, and the stock jumped 19.43%. The rally broke through several parallel levels in one strong move. A longer-term parallel that had mostly contained price since the March 2020 lows had already started to give way over the previous four trading days, but earnings pushed TXN through a near-term parallel, too. A longer-term trend line drawn from January 2018 to April 1, 2021, points to $291 as the next important resistance, with the psychological level at $300 just above that. At the same time, the move looks stretched. RSI is 88.64, which suggests a retrace is likely. The first likely retest zone is $254.64, followed by the larger parallel at $228.72. A move that deep would probably need broader market weakness, but those are still the levels to watch if the breakout starts cooling off.
Salesforce Inc. (CRM) had one of the weakest charts in the group, dropping 8.69% and ending the day near the bottom of its recent range. The daily RSI at 41.08 is not extreme, and it had worked off earlier weakness enough to create the start of divergence. That had left room for a bounce, but today’s move likely damaged that setup. The weekly chart shows a more serious concern: a somewhat symmetrical but awkward head and shoulders style pattern, with an inclining trend line that, if measured that way, could project price down to $97.63. There is also a declining wedge, which means bounces can still happen, but the bigger picture is still bearish. Near term support sits in the $150 range. If that breaks, the larger downside setup becomes much more important.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is still in an important technical test after earnings. Revenue came in weaker, margins improved, and the stock gave a mixed signal after the report. The chart had been seen as a breakout and retrace bounce opportunity, but the price has now closed one day below the declining trend line. That alone does not confirm a breakdown. What matters next is whether the price closes below the red candle. If it does, the breakout setup is invalid. For now, the move still looks like a test candle pulling back, and more confirmation is needed tomorrow.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is in a similar setup. The stock broke out, retraced, and then closed just slightly below the declining trend line. That still leaves open the chance for a breakout, retrace, and bounce pattern. The next resistance is $440.02.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) fell 7.24% and is now sitting at a major technical point. The stock is forming a declining wedge after breaking an inclining parallel, while also printing a strong daily bottoming tail in an area of earlier consolidation. That tail matters because it supports the idea that the $130 to $120 zone is still important support. That zone has held twice already. A third test would likely either hold again or at least lead to more consolidation. On the larger chart, though, PLTR is still pressing against a declining trend line, which makes this a true make-or-break area. A move lower would reopen downside toward the support zone, with the trend line break point at $138.26. A breakout, on the other hand, would need a close above $149 tomorrow. Weekly RSI does not give a strong signal either way because the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. The main positive in the near term is still the daily bottoming tail.
Intel Corporation (INTC) reported earnings after hours and jumped to $77.22. On the monthly chart, RSI is 75.01, which is already overbought. The move has been dramatic and reflects a much bigger turnaround from the period when the stock looked almost left for dead. Even so, technical patterns often repeat. When long-term trend lines break, the price often comes back to test them. That leaves $68.15 as an important level to watch later on, even if the market does not move there right away. For now, the key question is whether the after-hours strength holds or starts to reverse later in the session.
The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) is still in a breakout setup, but not a clean one. The weekly chart shows a breakout from a trend line drawn from April 2011 through April 2022. The issue is that the move has already retested that breakout area twice. Normally, the cleaner setup is a breakout, one retest, then continuation higher. Because that did not happen as neatly, the staying power of this move is less certain. If REMX fails, the next support zones are $68.20 and then $59.60, both tied to earlier consolidation. On the daily chart, the ETF is still struggling with the $103 level. A clean move above that level would likely open the way for more upside. For now, the breakout case is still alive, with a possible move to $121, but it depends on a close above the current consolidation range.
Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) gave a classic sell-the-news reaction. The stock jumped in premarket trading, moving above $9 after news that the United States was changing marijuana classification from a schedule one drug to a schedule three drug, which would loosen rules tied to investing, research, banking, and transactions. Early excitement was strong, but it did not last. By the daily close, the chart had printed a large red candle. Even so, TLRY is still inside a consolidation range that leaves room for a speculative case. The main warning is that this stock has done this many times before. If a future development creates another push higher, resistance sits along the declining trend line near $13.79. Because that trend line slopes lower from a September 2023 pivot, the level will keep dropping the longer it takes for the price to reach it.
Bitcoin (BTC) stayed steady and did not give much new information during the day. Price is still holding comfortably above the key line at $73,173. The near term upside targets remain $80,000, then $80,500, followed by roughly $85,000, all supported by the inclining trend line on the chart.
Outlook
The bigger message across the market is clear. Markets are still highly sensitive to headlines, especially geopolitical headlines tied to oil, but they also keep recovering from those shocks surprisingly fast. The major indices are still consolidating near elevated levels, semiconductor leadership is still intact, and several important charts are now sitting near areas where confirmation matters more than the story around them. Gold and silver still lean bearish inside consolidation, oil is climbing through resistance in a volatile stair step pattern, and Bitcoin is still holding above support with upside targets unchanged. The market is still showing resilience, but it is doing so at levels where extension, not comfort, should be the main takeaway.
