Markets Near Resistance, Risk Still Rising | April 10, 2026
Jadid Herrera5 min read·Just now--
The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.9%, which was slightly better than the expected 1% reading versus 8.9%. That was enough to spark an early move higher in stocks. But that move did not last. The market rose at first, then pulled back as traders focused on the bigger issue: inflation was still very high, even if the number came in a little better than expected. The S&P 500 (SPX) stayed slightly higher on hopes for peace in the Middle East and because oil had dropped from the $120 area to below $100, but that strength looked more emotional than fundamental. The bigger concern stayed the same: the market may be giving investors a false sense of confidence even though the economy looks much worse than it did a year ago.
The E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) told a similar story. The previous session showed a strong move up, then sideways trading into the close, followed by more sideways action overnight. After the CPI report, futures jumped and then fell back to about where they were before the release. On the daily chart, the S&P 500 was pushing into a major zone around 6800, right into the underside of repeated resistance. That made the index vulnerable to a reversal, especially after rallying about 8% in a straight line and rising seven days in a row. With a two-day market closure ahead and geopolitical risk still unresolved, the setup favored profit taking, especially from institutional investors who may not want to hold large positions into the weekend.
Inflation remained the main macro issue. The view here was that inflation this year could run north of 5%, maybe even 6%, and the bigger question was whether that pressure carries into 2027.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) was basically flat on the session and still trading inside a parallel upsloping channel. That chart structure had already helped identify a major short signal earlier in the week, and oil sold off hard after that. Now it was sitting in the lower part of that range, waiting for the next catalyst. The key issues were simple: whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and whether the two-week ceasefire turns into something more lasting. If both happen, oil could fall to at least $80 a barrel, maybe even $75. Even then, the expectation was that countries, including the U.S., would likely start buying aggressively in the $80 to $70 range, putting a floor under crude. As long as oil stays above the $60 a barrel level seen earlier in January and February, inflation pressure is likely to keep working its way through the economy.
Gold was still moving a little higher, but the chart pattern remained bearish overall. The same was true for silver, and maybe even more so. Silver had a flatter pattern, which made it look like a cleaner bearish setup. Both metals could still move a little higher into resistance first, but the bigger expectation remained lower prices over the next few months. For silver, the key level was clear: as long as it stays below about 82, the next move is still expected to be lower.
Natural gas (NG) looked like an emerging upside trade. A starter position had been taken after the chart tagged a double bottom and continued to show a wedge pattern that supports a move higher. The bigger idea was that natural gas had become the forgotten energy trade. If oil stays elevated, especially around $80 or $85 a barrel for the next four or five months, companies may lean more toward natural gas because it is cheaper by comparison. That could increase demand. The target was not $4 natural gas. The focus was on a swing move of 10% to 20%, with a plan to add near the 260 area and with more support around 235.
The semiconductor space, represented by VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), looked like it may be nearing a major turning point. The chart suggested a possible multi-year cycle top, maybe as soon as today. The main technical signal was a triple tap against a major trend line. The pattern matters because the first touch caused a shallow pullback, the second caused a deeper one, and the third often leads to the biggest reversal.
This view was not based on just one chart. On the weekly chart, the 200 moving average showed that major peaks in 2021 and 2024 both stretched about 103% above that average before turning lower. If SMH gaps up toward 436 to 437, that same maximum extension would appear again. The monthly chart, using the 50 moving average, pointed to the same conclusion. When that extension setup is combined with the triple-tap trend line pattern, the odds of a major top in semiconductors rise sharply. The takeaway was clear: this looked like an area where short exposure in semiconductors deserved serious attention.
At the same time, the stronger long setup appeared to be in software. Salesforce Inc. (CRM) had dropped sharply over the last two days and moved into a gap fill and pivot high area, which supports the case for a technical bounce. ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) had also fallen hard and was moving toward major support around 86 to 87, with the stock near 88. Oracle Corporation (ORCL) could still go a bit lower, but it had already filled one gap and had another near 128, only about $6 to $8 below, where there was also major support and a double bottom. The broader trade idea was simple: short semiconductors and go long software. The expected time frame was the next two to four weeks, with a typical swing trade target of 10% plus in a couple of weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) had already triggered a short-term breakout and was still climbing above $72,000. The next major test was between $75,000 and $76,000, which marked the highest pivot zone reached since the major selloff. If Bitcoin clears that range, the next upside target remains $80,000 to $85,000. After that, the view likely turns bearish again, possibly even toward new lows. If Bitcoin fails at $75,000 to $76,000, then the lower trend line becomes important again, and if that line is extended far enough, it could still point to new lows. Right now, the main question is whether Bitcoin can break through $75,000 to $76,000. If it does, the move to $80,000 to $85,000 could happen fast.
Outlook
The bigger market picture was becoming more selective. The S&P 500 had rallied hard into a major resistance zone. Oil had pulled back, but it still looked like a major part of the inflation story. Gold and silver still looked bearish under resistance. Semiconductors were showing several signs of a major top, while software looked better positioned for a tactical bounce. Bitcoin was moving toward an important technical test, and natural gas was starting to look like a more interesting upside trade than many investors may realize. The main point was not that the opportunity was gone. It was that broad optimism that looked misplaced, and the better trades now seemed to be specific, targeted setups rather than buying everything across the board.
