Iraqi militias and Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. embassies and bases. The probability of US forces entering Iran by April 30 is now 86% YES, up from 62% a day ago.
The markets reacted strongly to this escalation. The April 30 market surged 24 points in 24 hours, indicating expectations of a military response. The December 31 market rose to 90.5% YES, showing belief in troop deployment.
This market sees volume at $5.1M in daily USDC traded, with a deep order book requiring $84,737 to shift prices by 5 points, suggesting institutional involvement. The largest recent move was a 4-point spike at 2:14 PM, likely from a significant buy order.
The missile and drone attacks indicate ongoing escalation in the region. Traders are betting on a military response beyond airstrikes, potentially involving ground troops. A YES bet at 86¢ secures a $1 payout if US entry is confirmed by April 30 — a 1.2x return. Current odds suggest traders expect imminent military action.
Watch for statements from key actors like Trump or Hegseth, and any Pentagon announcements regarding troop movements. A shift in rhetoric or confirmed operations inside Iran could further impact these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 86.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 90.5% | — | — | Trade → |
