President Macron said a French vessel was not deliberately targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. On Polymarket, the odds for the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30, 2026, are at 8.5% YES, down from 12% a day ago.
Macron’s statement signals intent to de-escalate, and the UK warships in Hormuz market has moved accordingly. With 12 days left and odds dropping 3.5 points in 24 hours, traders are pricing out a British military presence. The single largest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike at 4:25 PM, a momentary reaction to other news before settling lower.
Real dollars traded were $1,412, with face value volume of $16,551. The order book is thin: just $304 would swing the price five points, making the market susceptible to large trades. Macron’s remarks have lowered the perceived threat level, likely reducing any urgency for the UK to send warships.
Macron’s de-escalation contrasts with earlier escalations like US naval engagements. At 8.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the UK deploys warships, an 11.8x return. Believing in a deployment would require expecting a significant increase in tensions within 12 days.
Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence and any naval movements reported by allied European nations. Confirmation of warship deployments would likely push the market upward.
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