Macron offered full support to Trump after an armed attack on the US President. The US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26 market sits at 0.3% YES, down from 9% yesterday.
Macron’s endorsement comes as US-Iran talks hit a “standstill,” with both sides unwilling to soften their terms. The April 24 and April 25 markets are effectively dead, both at 0.1% YES. The April 26 market dropped 19 points as traders priced out any near-term diplomatic progress.
Trading volume on these diplomatic meeting markets is thin. Only $1,042 in USDC has traded across them, which means a $3 bet can move the April 26 odds by 5 points. The 19-point drop on April 26 is the largest move, and it happened on very little capital.
The stalemate is a real setback, not noise. With Macron backing Trump and no movement in negotiations, the market’s pessimism makes sense. At 0.3¢, buying YES on an April 26 meeting is a lottery ticket: a 333x return if it happens, but the probability is near zero. For sentiment to change, there would need to be a breakthrough in the broader US-Iran dialogue or a third-party diplomatic intervention.
Watch for official statements from Trump’s administration or unexpected diplomatic moves from Iran. A new meeting announcement or a shift in rhetoric from either side could reprice these markets quickly.
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Russia X Ukraine Ceasefire May 31 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
