Lebanon has reopened a road and bridge damaged by Israeli strikes in the south. The market for whether Israel will conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 1, 2026, sits at 100% YES, unchanged.
The infrastructure reopening suggests fragile compliance with the current truce rather than full cessation of military posturing. The odds for military action in Beirut remain static, though the reopening could read as a de-escalation signal. Markets for April 5 and April 9 also sit at 100% YES, meaning traders see no near-term peace.
The market for Israel military action against Iran by April 21 tells a different story: 14.4% YES, up from 4% twenty-four hours ago. This jump suggests trader attention is shifting from Beirut toward the broader Iran conflict.
Trading volume in the Beirut market is $0, meaning the 100% odds reflect no active trading rather than strong conviction. The Iran market, by contrast, has $5,742 in daily USDC traded, with $709 required to move the market 5 percentage points.
At 14¢, a YES share in the Iran market pays $1 if military action occurs by April 21, a 7.14x return. Traders betting on no action in Beirut may use this contract to hedge against broader regional escalation.
Watch for statements from Netanyahu or IDF announcements, which could move these markets quickly. Any new IDF deployments or confirmed strikes in Beirut would be the most direct catalysts.
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Israel Military Action Against Beirut On 522| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 13.2% | — | — | Trade → |
