Lebanese civilians are cautiously returning home as the ceasefire with Israel holds. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Market reaction
The April 30 market jumped from 59% to 72% over recent sessions and now trades at 94%. The June 30 market is at 96.6% YES. The Israeli suspension of offensive actions by April 30 market is at 96.2% YES, up from 87% yesterday.
Why it matters
The term structure shows the biggest jump in expectations between April 17 and April 30, a 7-point increase, suggesting traders anticipate a possible catalyst in that window. With Hezbollah excluded from talks, a potential spoiler remains even as prices reflect high confidence in the ceasefire holding through spring.
What to watch
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire markets trade $1,205,891 in actual USDC daily. It takes $50,093 to move the April 30 market 5 points, indicating solid institutional interest. The suspension of Lebanon offensive market is thinner, requiring $25,577 to move 5 points.
Watch for statements from Netanyahu and Naim Qassem in particular. Any ceasefire violations or diplomatic breakthroughs will move these markets.
At 94¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire holds, a 1.06x return.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
