## Market Snapshot
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Market is at 9.5% YES, a slight increase from 8% 24 hours ago. Iran’s enriched uranium surrender by April 30, 2026, remains at 0.2% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
## Key Takeaways
– Pricing suggests that the market sees the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 as unlikely, reflected in the 9.5% YES pricing. – Market participants appear to interpret the leaked intel as consistent with Iran’s capability to retain and rebuild its nuclear assets, affecting the likelihood of a uranium surrender. – The leaked information may indicate a significant impact on market expectations regarding US-Iran nuclear negotiations and uranium acquisition scenarios.
## Article Body
In a recent statement, former President Donald Trump claimed that US B-2 stealth bomber strikes in 2025 “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. However, leaked intelligence contradicts this assertion, indicating that the strikes only set back Iran’s nuclear capabilities by approximately two years. Iran reportedly retains the knowledge and dispersed assets necessary to rebuild its program, as well as a quantity of enriched uranium. This development comes amid ongoing tensions following the collapse of the JCPOA in October 2025 and subsequent US-Israel joint operations targeting Iranian nuclear sites. The Pentagon’s assessment aligns with the leaked intel, suggesting no permanent destruction of Iran’s nuclear capacity.
## Market Interpretation
The news appears to have a moderate impact on markets related to US obtaining enriched uranium from Iran and Iran’s potential surrender of uranium stockpiles. The leaked intel suggesting Iran retains significant nuclear capabilities is consistent with a decrease in the likelihood of the US obtaining enriched uranium imminently, reflected in the 9.5% YES pricing for the May 31 deadline. This aligns with the decreased probability for any imminent surrender of Iran’s enriched uranium, as indicated by the low YES pricing for April 30, 2026.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor any official responses from the US and Iranian governments regarding the leaked intelligence report. Developments in US-Iran diplomatic engagements or further military actions could influence market expectations. Additionally, any statements from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or new intelligence assessments could provide further context on the status of Iran’s nuclear program and impact market pricing.
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Us Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 9.5% | — | — | View market → |
| April 30 | 0.2% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 24.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 0.2% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31, 2026 | 40.5% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30, 2026 | 19.5% | — | — | View market → |
